By Timothy R. Olsen ’09, ’18 MBA
Illustration by Liz Lord ’04

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Horseshoe Bend is one of the most photographed natural sites in the American Southwest.

At the canyon’s edge, tourists can lean over a manmade railing and look down to the Colorado River 1,000 feet below.

Recently released from the confines of the Glen Canyon Dam, the water meanders through the U-shaped path it carved into sandstone cliffs over millennia.

With the safety of the railing, the view is breathtaking and the feeling exhilarating. But if you move a few feet to the side in either direction, there is no railing. Suddenly, that view takes your breath for a different reason.

Trepidation, rather than exhilaration creeps in, which is only reinforced by the smattering of forlorn items — hats, water bottles, sunglasses, and even a cell phone or two — that have fallen out of reach and are now teetering over the abyss.

And that’s exactly where higher education currently finds itself, hovering on the precipice of a steep drop.

If you’re familiar with the current college landscape, you’ve likely heard the term “enrollment cliff” bandied about. It essentially refers to a projected significant drop in the number of traditional college-age students, largely stemming from the significant decline in U.S. birth rates following the Great Recession.

“Those babies are now getting ready to go to college, so there will be less students graduating from high school across the country,” explains Shelby Frauen-Riddle, USU’s executive director of admissions pathways and engagement. “This caused a shift in our focus as a higher education institution. We must go find new populations because one of our primary populations that we recruit to USU is dwindling.”

Nationally, the total number of high school seniors is projected to decline by 10% between 2023 and 2041. Due to myriad factors, that number varies from state to state — for example, California is projected to experience a 29% drop, while Idaho is projected to see a 13% increase — but as a whole, the traditional college prospect pool is shrinking, which poses significant potential impacts. Utah is facing an estimated 6% decrease.

However, while the enrollment cliff is a concern Utah State is aware of and is taking steps to counteract, it’s not the most significant issue facing the Aggies. For USU, the greater threat is what is known as the “college-going rate” and its current trajectory.

Factoring in leave deferments, religious missions, and other data points, the state of Utah saw a 6% drop in its college-going rate (74% to 68%) from 2010 to 2022. That number is projected to continue to fall to roughly 60% by 2035, and it’s the combination of the two — a decrease in traditional student-aged population coupled with a lower percentage of that population attending college — that has Utah State’s attention.

“That’s where we feel it,” says Katie Jo North, USU’s vice president for strategic enrollment management. “You layer the enrollment cliff on top of the college-going rate, and that’s where we lose our students.”

And while Utah State is currently at the cliff looking down, the university hasn’t made its way to the edge blindly. New initiatives like the Aggie Advantage Grant and the Utah State Promise program can help new students offset the cost of an education. USU is also working on various new pathways to attract more nontraditional students, including smoother transfers from other institutions and technical schools in the state, as well as workforce partnerships.

“I like to describe earning a degree as the destination and Utah State as the freeway to get there. High school students have long been the primary on-ramp, but we need additional entry points,” North explains. “Our recruitment is getting more targeted and more personal. We’re meeting students where they are and opening pathways that don’t rely on the typical college trajectory.”

Attracting new students, though, is only part of the equation. Like a bucket with a hole in the bottom, continuing to fill up the top without addressing the hole is only going to be so beneficial. Student retention is a key piece of the puzzle, and holding on to more of the students that are already part of the university will be key.

Currently, USU has a first-year retention rate of 76%, roughly 2% lower than the national average for public, four-year institutions. That means of the 5,822 students who began their Aggie journey in August 2025, nearly 1,500 of them will no longer be enrolled at Utah State in August 2026.

Heidi Kesler, Utah State’s Center for Academic Belonging and Learning Excellence executive director, is doing her best to help the Aggies patch up the hole in their bucket.

“USU is committed to supporting students in their academic goals. For most students, those goals include earning a degree or credential,” Kesler says. “Students who utilize their support team are much more likely to achieve academic success and recognize a sense of academic belonging at USU. With that sense of belonging, USU’s retention rate will continue to rise.”

Something else Utah State has going for it as higher education moves towards the cliff’s edge is that the “here” Kesler mentions is relative. With three residential campuses and 30 campuses statewide — not to mention USU Online — the university has truly established itself to meet students where they’re at. It’s also the only institution in the state where learners can earn everything from a technical education degree to a Ph.D.

“This is our land-grant mission. We can take care of any student in any situation, whether that’s a location, financial, or program issue,” North exclaims. “So, where some institutions are limited on what they can do, we really can meet students wherever they’re at and have an opportunity for them because of the land-grant mission and the statewide options.”